« The EU, in its relations to China, stands primarily for cooperation, negotiation and arbitration rather than the U.S.’s aggressive approach of “us versus them”, followed by threats and sanctions »
Robert Vandemeulebroucke (pen name: Roger Vendam) is a retired Belgian ambassador. He studied history of art and archaeology at Ghent and Ankara universities. For almost 40 years, he represented his country in four out of five continents, including the US, the Middle East and the Far East. Since his retirement, he has written articles on the ever more dramatic situation in the Middle East first under President George W. Bush, then President Obama and now under President Trump.
LHCH: You published the first book on President Trump, and a second is in preparation. Tell us about your books.
Robert Vandemeulebroucke (R.V) : my firstbook “Donald J. Trump – A Chronicle – The First Year of a Failing and Chaotic Presidency” has been published in New York at the end of 2018. I will finish writing the sequel after the presidential election on 3 November.
In both books, I describe the story of a relentless and continuous power grab by this President by increasing wherever possible his impressive executive powers and promote a “rule alone” policy based on his controversial electoral agenda. He subjugated and successfully strengthened his grip on both majority Republican-led Chambers of Congress at least during the first two years of his term. At the 2018 midterm election in November 2018, Trump lost the House to the Democrats who opposed his every move. Nonetheless, Trump continued his partisan policies as if nothing happened. The antagonism between the President and the new Democratic House produced endless conflicts: the row over the financing of his Mexican wall, the outfall of the Mueller report, his extortion of a foreign leader (Ukraine-gate) leading to his impeachment by the House for which he escaped indictment in the Republican-led Senate. It rendered him invulnerable and above the Constitution or so he thinks. The COVID – 19 pandemic shows abundantly clear how unprepared, and unfit Trump is to lead his country through a significant sanitary crisis.
Both books explain his erratic and contradictory foreign policy. From North Korea, China, Israel, the Middle East and Afghanistan to Venezuela they describe Trump’s belligerent policies that never brought a satisfactory end to ongoing conflicts any closer, and even created new international tensions in other places. All Trump’s foreign policies aggravated and complicated matters further around the globe, and his ill-thought interventions left only wreckage behind not to mention that he put friendly countries like South Korea and Japan at risk repeatedly. His “America First” policies have led to alienation with numerous partner and coalition countries and always ended in slapping tariffs or other forms of American intimidation and pressure on them.
LHCH : What are your views on the world economy and its leading players, the U.S, China and the European Union after COVID-19?
R.V: COVID-19 affected the world globally, brutally and unexpectedly. Until the time comes when scientists will find a vaccine, successfully test it and make it available worldwide – think of a timeframe of about nine months from now or somewhere between March and December 2021 -, COVID-19 will remain a severe threat to humanity and the source of everybody’s worst nightmare. From now to then, every nation will depend on various urgently needed repetitive and multiple sanitary measures and follow them up correctly to block a second wave and protect its citizens maximally. Therefore, unprecedented international cooperation and understanding will be necessary and petty squabbles over who has done what wrong or withhold much-needed funds from international organisations such as the WHO must be avoided. Whatever shortcomings may have been committed by communicating about the virus and its rapid spread pale when compared with the many weeks of precious time gone to waste by Trump and his administration, thereby increasing by a factor X the number of American fatalities. To prepare the country for a second wave of the virus is a real possibility ignored by Washington.
Comparisons with the stock market crash of 1929 abound. The impact of this virus on the world economy will be similar if not worse and may linger longer to disappear.
China may be the first country to recover and re-start some of its factories and businesses. But with the rest of the world in lockdown, it will take a long time to recover its world-leading export position. Since the Cultural Revolution in 1976, this is the first time that Chinese GDP figures are markedly down. China will need time to digest this blow.
The U.S. is in a relatively worse position than China because of failing to offer a timely response to the virus. It is unprepared to face a second wave attack, its economy is suddenly turning south, and unemployment statistics have exploded. Add to this the nervousness of both Democrats and Republicans to elect the next President on 3 November. Not much else will be on the books of this administration than fighting the virus and electioneering.
The EU is battling its proper nationalist demons but will continue to act as a bridge between a floundering U.S. and China. The EU, in its relations to China, stands primarily for cooperation, negotiation and arbitration rather than the U.S.’s aggressive approach of “us versus them”, followed by threats and sanctions. But as a matter of high priority, the EU will need to establish a better cohesion between member-states fast to exit with success the economic consequences of the pandemic.
The impact of COVID-19 on every country in the world, superpower or not, will be long, complicated and painful. A manifest token of showing the world’s unity against this pandemic is necessary and can go a long way to shorten considerably every country’s timeframe. Ultimately, it will depend on the aptitude, the political talent and the firmness of elected leaders as well as on the understanding of voters to participate in this mammoth recovery project.
LHCH : What are your views on future relations between the EU and the U.S.?
R.V: At this point, it is evident that the future relationship between both partnerships will not necessarily develop along the same lines as during the pre-Trump years when cooperation, comprehension and like-mindedness were the order of the day. It presumes that Biden will replace Trump at the White House in November. If not, prepare yourself for the worst possible outcome because what will remain after two terms of President Trump is an America beyond recognition and an American foreign policy beyond repairs. In this context, the EU would be well advised to strengthen its internal cohesion to the utmost to withstand adequately internal divisions and stop Trump meddling in EU affairs.
Then democracy in America as we know it will abruptly come to an end and thrown into the dustbin of history. My opinion if Biden wins the contest will suggest how the future of both relationships may move on from almost moribund to a new renaissance. If Democrats win the presidency and both Chambers of Congress, the victory over Trump will be total. But even if Democrats will lose the Senate to Republicans, it will only have an impact on policies at home but hardly on future relations between the two economic blocks. What can be said with certainty is that human rights in all its dimensions, abandoned by Trump, will move to the forefront of the U.S.’s political agenda.
Broadly speaking all economic links between the U.S. and the EU with reciprocal sanctions abandoned, will need little time to be reinvigorated.
The Biden-agenda of reviving political and security links will need more time. That is because President Biden will first have to get rid of the impact of many harmful and contradictory policies launched by his predecessor at home and restore the badly damaged political and social fabric of the U.S. society. Repair work on transatlantic relations will start but at a slower pace. Destruction is a far quicker done job than rebuilding.
Among security issues, I mention the following: how to make sure that the required 2 per cent of GDP-contributions expected from all member countries to bolster NATO defences will be paid on schedule when COVID-19 has severely depleted budgets? How to handle a NATO member country like Turkey that has one foot in the Alliance and the other in Putin’s Kremlin? And what about a promising EU defence strategy outside NATO? Should NATO consider an expanding role for the organisation outside Europe, for example, in the Middle East and North Africa? Finally, what about lifting sanctions on China, Iran and a bunch of friendly countries?
The answers to these and many other related questions can only be formulated after 3 November.
Roger Vendam: « Donald J. Trump, a chronicle, the first year of a failing and chaotic Presidency ». New York: Page Publishing 2018
