PART I
3 baskets: 3 main candidates, 2 outsiders and 3 surprises
The interviewed person is Frank Schwalba-Hoth (born 12 December 1952 in Hamburg, Germany) is a founding member of the German Greens and former Member of European Parlement (MEP).
With his experience and expertise, this German key player living in Brussels met us to enlighten us on a key issue on German involvement in the EU.
Angela Merkel – leaving
She was (and: is still) a gift, a positive gift for Germany, Europe (and even the world). Such a judgement might be an astonishing evaluation from me, a co-founder of the German Greens. She is not in the same party as me – but that does not matter. She is like a candle, which gives light and burns quietly down – despite that in the 15 years or her reign as chancellor, she was not at all in a quiet room but stormy weather was most of the time around her (and us). In a historic period, where leaders of other key countries were seduced by a “bling-bling” behaviour, either with populist messages or by erratic or even authoritarian policies, she delivered the contrasting message. She was always present intellectually, nearly always based on unnegotiable values and a determination to act with a global orientation as a responsible European and – sometimes – even global leader. When a situation became emotionally unbearable (“one million refugees stranded in the Balkans in the middle of nowhere”), she gave the order to open the borders and asked her country of 83 million citizen to act with empathy (doing so, she was aware that an important segment of her own centre-right political party would not be able to follow her). This woman with partly Polish ancestors, daughter of a Lutheran clergyman and a PhD in quantum chemistry will certainly enter history.
Three baskets: three main candidates, two outsiders and two surprises
Someone has to follow her. Two timely separated steps will reduce the seven candidates to two and then finally to one. There are three “baskets”. In the first basket, you will find three male Christian Democrats born between 1955 and 1961, all from North Rhine-Westphalia North, the largest German land at the border with the Netherlands and Belgium. They all have a profound political experience, all with international merits.
Armin Laschet and Friedrich Merz have been Members of the European Parliament, Norbert Röttgen is President of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German toFederal Parliament).
In the second basket are two other Christian Democrats, who have not (yet) declared that they would be a candidate: Markus Söder, (Minister-President of Bavaria) and Ralph Brinkhaus (Parlamentary leader of the Christian Democrats in the German Federal Parliament).
In the third – and last – basket, you will find two Greens: the two Party Co-Presidents Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck.
Armin Laschet, the closest to Merkel
Laschet (with partly Belgian ancestors) is a centre-left humanist in his heart and politics, but (not yet?!) able to present himself as “the natural leader” with charisma and determination. Being the Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia, the largest German State, he is the only of these three candidates to have intensive experience as head of an administration. He is considered as a close ally of Merkel – especially of her refugee policy, he set standards in the dialogue with minorities; he sees the future of Germany in a globally more active European Union, believes in the universality of human rights, is a convinced multilateralist and is fighting for a stronger role of the United Nations.
Friedrich Merz, the most conservative
Merz (with partly French Huguenot ancestors) is an ascetic centre-right attorney with a high profile in economics and various functions in companies and banks. He is member of the Trilateral Commission of David Rockefeller and Zbigniew Brzezinski. After an internal party-political defeat, he left politics and intensified his presence in the world of business in becoming chairperson of the German subsidiary of BlackRock, which is with $7.4 trillion the world’s largest asset management corporation. In issues like refugees, migrants, minorities, climate and so social policy, he is the most conservative of the three main candidates.
Norbert Röttgen, the internationalist
Röttgen is a European internationalist with a PhD on the role EU Court of Justice, with clear positions on the political hotspots around the world (Africa, China, EU, Iran, Middle East, Russia, Turkey, US). After the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, he had the courage to announce the step-by-step shut down of all nuclear power plants in Germany. Together with Laschet, he shares the handicap of not giving the impression to be a “leader”.
Whoever chosen – a coalition partner is needed
As the electoral system in Germany is based on proportional representation, no party, in the Federal Republic ever got the absolute majority of seats. Coalitions are needed. As most of this century the country was governed by a “Grosse Koalition” (Christian Democrats and Social Democrats), these two parties explained publicly that they do not intend to continue with that tradition. The provisions from October of the seven leading polling institutes indicate the possibility for three different options (Christian Democrats 35,0-36,0 %, Greens 18,0-20,0 %, Social Democrats 14,5-17,0 %, Extreme Right 9,0-12,0 %, Left 7,0-9,0 %, Liberals 5,0-7,5 %):Christian Democrats with Greens, Greens with Social Democrats and the Liberals, Greens with Social Democrats, the Left and the Liberals.
If you look at the 16 states, a variety of coalitions are functioning in the moment, Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Greens each 11 times, the Left and the Liberals each 3 times involved.
In Spring (?!): only one will survive
He plan was the following: those three main candidates from the Christian Democrats should have been reduced to one, when the some 1,001 delegates of the Christian Democrats of the CDU would come together for a party congress on 04 December 2020. On 27 October, it was announced that because of COVID-19 the party congress will be postponed, no concrete day has yet been given.
The 400,000 members of the local branches of the party – not always involving all regional and federal MPs, have selected those 1001 delegates. They will vote on the party leader (and therefore quasi-automatically this person will be nominated to succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor). Three aspects will mostly drive this choice: what personality is considered to represent the core values of the CDU and mobilise the , who will get a better result in the general elections, who will be able to create a government with the Greens, the probable coalition partner.
Second basket: Söder as a charismatic possible success story
In the second “basket”, you will find another two male Christian Democrats (both with an outside chance). Bavarians are Germans – but not really: they have maintained a certain often only folkloristic “independency” – in politics, they have their own Christina Democrat party, the CSU (and the CDU, the party of Merkel, is not standing for elections in Bavaria). Markus Söder, the CSU leader, born in 1967 has the most masculine and testosterone-driven personality of the candidates in all three baskets. In case Laschet or Röttgen will be selected during the party congress, he will throw his hat in the arena – arguing that a real strong charismatic personality is needed. The Christian Democrats from the rest of the republic then have to decide whether to accept the candidate from the much smaller sister party. Where is Söder standing politically? He presents himself as close to the people, has criticised the refugee policy of Merkel, has little international experience (despite some short visits abroad, among others to meet Putin). He is the most populist (but in a soft form) of all the candidates in the three baskets.
Second basket: Ralph Brinkhaus – a joker as compromise
Ralph Brinkhaus, born in 1968, is like the three candidates from the first basket from the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. He is an economist, who only two years ago became a public figure, when he was elected as leader of the 246 Members of Parliament in the united CDU/CSU political group in the Federal Parliament. In that new post, he succeeded to overcome the divisions within the group and to create a rarely seen common identity. This special mixture of knowledge, values-orientation, empathy, trustworthiness and a down to earth compromise policy seduced the broad majority of Members of Parliament of the CDU/CSU. If the vote during the party congress – most probably happened via videoconference – will not satisfy the two segments of the Christian Democrats, in addition Söder will not be accepted by the CDU, if internal quarrel will appear and if the polls will go down, Brinkhaus, this gentle master of compromise, might convince the CDU as well as the Bavarian CSU. Little is known about his political ideas outside budget, business, economic and tax policy. As he might not develop a centre-right nor a centre-left policy, he might be a centre-centre candidate as chancellor. It would not be an unusual constellation that the leader of the political group in the Federal Parliament would become Chancellor- for Kohl and Merkel it was already the trampoline in order to become Chancellor.
Third basket :the Greens
In case the most probable of all coalitions – Christian Democrats with the Greens – will not be possible, a coalition of the left will be the option. The most difficult handicap to overcome will be for the Social Democrats to accept a Green Chancellor. The SPD, founded in 1863, with between1967-2002 never less than 30% of the votes (in 1972 even 45,8 % with Willy Brandt), lost this century about half of their members and is in all polls credited always less than the Greens. Not easy for this oldest German political party to accept a chancellor from the environmentalists. In this case, the Greens might present ine of the two Co-Presidents of the party.
Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck
Baerbock, born in 1980 in and Northern Germany, studied law and politics in Hamburg, her PhD is on natural disasters and international law. She was a competitive trampoline jumper, worked in the European and in the German Parliament on foreign affairs and security policy, was member of the board of the European Green Party. Her political priorities are climate policy, human rights, refugees and migration.
Habeck was born 1969 in Schleswig-Holstein, the most Northern of the 16 German states – near to the Danish border. He studied literature; his PhD is on literary aesthetics. He worked as a writer, novelist, poet and essayist. Seven of his 16 works, he wrote together with his wife. He became Minister for Environment, Agriculture, Energy and Digitalisation as well as Deputy Minister-President of Schleswig-Holstein
Since 2018, these two are leading as Co-Presidents the Green Party together. They succeeded, where since 40 years all green co-leaderships have failed. Two strong personalities appear publicly as a team. Their issue-driven cooperation is in Germany recognized even outside the Green party as something exceptional in politics.
Whatever will happen, on the evening of the Federal election on 26 September 2021 we will know more.
LHCH international : This opinion reflects of the person interviewed.
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