As high as 90 for women in affluent areas, study shows. Life expectancy at birth in China is projected to increase to 81.3 by 2035, according to a paper published in the The Lancet Public Health. But the study by a group of Chinese researchers follows China’s birth rate falling to a record low last year as its overall population fell for the first time in six decades
People in China will live to over 80 on average by 2035, contributing to one of the world’s fastest and largest ageing populations. Life expectancy at birth is projected to increase to 81.3 by 2035, with females in some affluent areas set to reach 90.
Women in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and Zhejiang will have at least a 50 per cent chance to surpass a life expectancy of 90 by 2035.
Life expectancy – a key indicator of population health – at birth is the number of years a newborn can expect to live on average on condition that the current death rate does not change.
China’s rapidly ageing population has created concerns for its economic growth and overall prosperity, with the number of retirees set to skyrocket and the number of young workers set to shrink, placing extra strain on the healthcare system.
China is expected to have more than 400 million people – roughly the same as the current populations of the United States and Britain combined – aged 60 and above by 2035.
A series of policies have been rolled out or are under deliberation to tackle the looming demographic crisis, including encouraging couples to have three children and delaying the retirement age.
Increases in life expectancy might be associated with declines in fertility and reductions in infant mortality
China’s current retirement age is among the lowest in the world at 60 for men and 55 for women who work in the office and 50 for female blue-collar workers.
Women in China are expected to live until 85.1 on average by 2035, and men 78.1, with the gap having increased from 6.2 years in 2019, the researchers noted.
In areas where the social development level is similar to that of high-income countries, the overall life expectancy recently exceeded South Korea and the US, the study found.
In contrast, some provinces are close to low-income countries in terms of overall life expectancy due to a high burden of infectious diseases, neonatal mortality and road accidents.
Life expectancy has jumped from 35 when the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949 to 78.2 in 2021, according to China’s National Health Commission.
Hong Kong, Macau and Japan shared the highest life expectancy in the world in 2020 at 85, according to the World Bank.
